The American Rescue Plan Act of 2021 increased premium tax credits (PTCs) for Marketplace coverage and extended eligibility for those credits to people with incomes above 400 percent of the federal poverty level (FPL). Consequently, Marketplace enrollment reached a record high during the 2022 open enrollment period. However, these enhancements are set to expire after 2022. Without extension, Marketplace enrollment will most likely fall and the number of people uninsured will increase. In addition, after the public health emergency expires, we previously estimated that more than 14 million people will lose Medicaid coverage. The Marketplace would be the only affordable coverage option for many of those losing Medicaid. So, extending the enhanced PTCs would increase the likelihood that such people will sign up for Marketplace plans, rather than becoming uninsured.
In this report, we estimate health coverage and costs in 2023 both with and without extension of the American Rescue Plan Act's enhanced PTCs. We find the following:
The report was published by the Urban Institute in April 2022. It has received coverage from CNN, Axios, Bloomberg, and Business Insider, among other media outlets. The report was also cited in a series of fact sheets released by the White House following the passage of the Inflation Reduction Act, which included a three-year extension of the enhanced subsidies.
ARPA-Related Publications: